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Significant
changes can be expected in the patterns of trade and trade
balances across countries in view of rapid shifts in the
exchange rates of the main reserve currencies, particularly the
depreciation of the dollar against the euro, as well as
disparate movements of the currencies of emerging-market
countries against the dollar, and, hence against each other.
However, while these exchange-rate movements may bring about
rapid changes in the trade of the United States with the EU,
this is unlikely to be the case for its trade with East Asian
countries.
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Although
the downward trend may be mitigated by increased consumption in
the emerging market economies of East Asia and the Russian
Federation. A major feature of the sugar market is the presence
of market distortions, stemming mainly from subsidization in the
EU and the United States that insulates domestic producers from
international market pressures.
China
is playing an increasingly important role as an emerging market
for many metals and minerals, due to the rapid growth of
consumption. For iron ore, aluminium and copper, China’s
industrial expansion is critical to increasing global demand and
prices. The same is true for nickel, the most important
ingredient for stainless steel production, which accounts for
two thirds of the worldwide consumption of primary nickel. As
production is unlikely to keep up with demand, stocks are likely
to continue falling and prices rising. |
